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Take Deggendorf, a picture-perfect town on the Danube near the Czech and Austrian borders. In the fall of , local residents saw tens of thousands of migrants pass through.

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Now, only about asylum seekers remain in the town of 36, Deggendorf has full employment and hardly any crime. They can tell the copy from the original. In some ways, Bavaria is an obvious target for the far right. Nationalism comes more easily to people in this proud former kingdom that has nurtured its distinct identity over centuries.

In the 19th century, resisting Prussian dominance, the Bavarian king paid couples to marry in traditional garb. Hitler started his political career in Munich. But like Austria, Bavaria has managed to somewhat distance itself from that part of German history.


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Birgid Ley, an independent local councilor in a suburban district of Munich, said she always tells people abroad she is from Bavaria rather than Germany. Germans north of the border sometimes have trouble understanding Bavarians, and not just because of the distinctive local dialects. Bavaria has been more consistently conservative than the rest of the republic. The Christian Social Union has been in power here since and has lost its absolute majority only twice in nearly half a century. The conservatives have never been shy to veer right: The much quoted mantra of their most iconic postwar leader, Franz-Josef Strauss, was to never allow a party to the right of the conservatives to become electable.

That, too, explains the current strategy in conservative ranks to fish for votes on the far right. So far, it is unclear whether the gamble will pay off or simply help cement the support base of the AfD. Opinion polls suggest that a tougher line on border security is popular — but the political jockeying of the conservatives ahead of state elections in October is not.

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The fact that the AfD has been gaining momentum at a time of strong economic growth is particularly worrying, said Mr. Jirschik, the mayor of Baierbrunn. Jirschik worries about freedom and democracy, as well as a social consensus he fears is wearing thin. He saw the outpouring of sympathy for the refugees in , the volunteer army of helpers, the good will. But the memories are fading. Jirschik said.

Refugees in Germany: Are they still welcome today?

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